The strange case of Kevin Millwood

After losing out on Matt Clement, Carl Pavano, and Jon Lieber, Indians General Manager signed Kevin Millwood to a one-year contract worth $7 mil prior to the 2005 season. The deal was relatively low-risk (one year contract) for the Indians and filled their void in the rotation. For Millwood, the deal offered a great stepping-stone to a more lucrative contract. As it turned out, both sides got what they wanted.

Kevin Millwood had a lot of bad luck in 2005. He led the entire American League in Earned Run Average, posting a 2.86 ERA. He pitched for a team which won 93 games and scored a lot of runs in the process. Yet somehow Millwood managed only nine wins. Why? Millwood was very unlucky.

In Millwood’s 11 losses, the Indians scored 13 total runs. They scored more than two runs ONCE. Furthermore, Millwood had many other games in which he received a no-decision while receiving minimal run-support.

Teammate Cliff Lee won nine more games despite having an ERA a full run higher. If Millwood had Lee’s run support, he easily would’ve won 22 games.

In terms of wins and losses, Millwood was extremely unlucky. However, in terms of runs allowed, Millwood was very lucky.

In 2005, Kevin Millwood had the uncanny ability to pitch incredibly well with runners on base. Here are some examples:

Overall, opposing hitters hit .251 against Millwood

With the bases loaded, hitters were 0-for-15 against Millwood

With runners on second and third, hitters were 3-for-20 (.150 batting average)

With runners in scoring position and two outs, hitters were 10-for-84 (.119 average)

Overall with runners in scoring position, hitters batted .194 against Millwood

If opposing hitters hit .251 against Millwood with runners in scoring position and with the bases loaded, Millwood would have given up a LOT more runs.

That’s all well and good, but what if Millwood somehow inherently possessed the ability to pitch better with runners on base? What if Millwood was a “clutch” pitcher?

If so, Millwood would have had similar splits in previous years. Let’s see:

In 2004, opposing batters hit .289 with runners in scoring position against Millwood.

In 2003, the average was .274

2002: .232

2001: .282

2000: .297

1999: .241

1998: .255

1997: .270

As we would expect, Millwood’s batting average against with runners in scoring position fluctuates around his overall average, .250. Simply put, in 2005, Kevin Millwood got very lucky to put up a 2.86 ERA.

Given how few runs Millwood gave up in 2005, he was unlucky to receive only nine wins. However, he was very lucky to give up so few runs in the first place.