Friday, January 06, 2006

Coco Crisp: more than just a name

Coco Crisp has had to prove himself at every level. Scouts have never particularly liked him, and his minor league statistics have not been very worthy (not to mention having such a silly-sounding name). Coco was included as the “Player to be Named Later” in the Indians’ trade of Chuck Finley to St Louis (the main “prize” of the trade was Luis Garcia, who I believe is now out of baseball).

Coco hit .301/.365/.428 at age 23 for AA New Haven before he was traded to Cleveland in 2002. Coco’s draw was his speed, as he stole 26 bases (and was caught 10 times). He managed only nine homers---but more disturbingly, he tallied only 16 doubles and one triple. Crisp profiled as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner, at best.

He proceeded to hit .360/.434/.511 in 56 games at AAA Buffalo in 2003. He also stole 20 bases. However, again Coco had only one homer, 19 doubles, and 6 triples. Still, those were very solid offensive numbers, especially for a 24-year-old. Crisp benefited from the Indians’ rebuilding effort, and was called up to the majors. Many believed that Coco’s offensive numbers in AAA were a fluke, and that he still didn’t profile as a regular in the big leagues.

Coco did look overmatched in 99 games, hitting .266/.302/.353, and adding 15 steals. He showed some flashes of being a decent leadoff hitter, and the Indians didn’t have any better outfield options at the time (especially after Milton Bradley was traded). The Indians still viewed him as trade-bait or a 4th outfielder.

In 2004, the Indians gave Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut the chance to win the center field job. Escobar was terrible, and in May the Indians sent him to AAA, moved Gerut to right, and stuck Crisp in center. Coco continued proving his doubters wrong. He put together a fine season, hitting .297/.344/.446 with 20 steals. However, Coco added a new twist to his skills: he belted 15 homers and 21 doubles.

Even with his fine performance in 2004, many still weren’t sold on Coco as a true every day player. Scouts and fans alike continued to expect Coco to slide into mediocrity, eventually settling in as a 4th outfielder. As many of you certainly know, Crisp had another excellent season in 2005, coupling stellar defense with a .300/.345/.465 offensive season. He ran less, but was more successful, stealing 15 bases while being caught six times (still far too many caught stealing, though). Crisp hit another 16 homers---the most he’d ever hit at any level. However, in 2005, Crisp belted 42 doubles---18 more than the previous year---while keeping all of his other offensive numbers intact.

Coco has developed surprising power in addition to his batting skills and speed. His dramatic increase in doubles bodes extremely well for his 2006 season, as with his continued maturity and improvement (Crisp is still just 26 and hasn’t yet reached his prime), a lot of those doubles will turn into homers. It is very reasonable to expect 20-25 home runs from Coco in 2006.

The one caveat with Coco is his on-base skills. Throughout his career, Coco has usually hit for a high average, but has not walked that often. This is not a problem, so long as Coco’s batting average remains as high as it has been the last two seasons. While this is certainly likely, batting averages are prone to fluctuate a lot due to luck. If Coco has a particularly unlucky season---dropping his average to, say, .260-.270---Coco’s inability to draw many walks will render him somewhat of an offensive liability, as his OBP would likely be around .310 or so.

Throughout his entire career, Coco has encountered doubters and repeatedly proven them wrong. Soon, he will be known for more than just his name.

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