Analyzing Jeremy Sowers, Part I

It’s too bad that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be considered a “rookie” in 2007; otherwise, Indians pitcher Jeremy Sowers would be a shoo-in for the Rookie of the Year award. Right?

Well, Delmon Young notwithstanding, not so fast. While Sowers’s 2006 performance gives hope to a bright 2007, his underlying indicators suggest otherwise. I will do my best to analyze Sowers and assess his prospects for the future.

Jeremy Sowers was selected by the Indians as the #6 overall pick in the 2004 draft. At the time, Sowers was viewed as a polished pitcher whose ceiling was not necessarily that of a #1 or #2 starter, but who had an excellent chance of being a solid major league pitcher. Beyond that, Sowers was not expected to need much more seasoning in the minor leagues.

Sowers soon proved that he was nearly a finished product. His began his professional career at age 22 in 2005 at High-A ball in Kinston, where he made 13 starts. Sowers had a 2.78 ERA and 75/19 K/BB ratio in 71 innings, giving up only 5 homers and 60 hits. His performance soon earned him a promotion to AA Akron, where his dominance continued. Sowers again made 13 starts, this time posting a 2.08 ERA and 70/9 K/BB ratio in 82 innings, whilst allowing only 8 homers and 74 hits.

Expectations were justifiably high for Sowers as the 2006 season began. He started the year with AAA Buffalo. Sowers made 15 starts at Buffalo, and posted a ridiculous 1.39 ERA in 97 innings (he allowed only 15 runs!). Sowers struck out 54, walked 29, allowed only one home run and gave up only 78 hits. His performance (and Jason Johnson’s terrible pitching) enabled the Indians to promote him to the big leagues.

With Cleveland in 2006, Sowers made 14 starts and finished with a 3.57 ERA in 88 innings. He struck out 35, walked 20, and gave up 10 homers and 85 hits. After the all-star break, Sowers’s ERA was a phenomenal 2.72, the second-best in the AL during this span (behind Johan Santana).

Tomorrow I will look at the underlying indicators of Sowers's performance, which suggest that we can attribute much of his success in 2006 to luck.