Juan and only

What do Luke Scott, Josh Bard, Mark Teahen, Josh Willingham, Rich Aurilia, Esteban German, Kenny Lofton, Wes Helms, Chris Duncan, Jose Valentin, David DeJesus, David Ross, Brandon Phillips, Mark DeRosa, Casey Blake, Greg Norton, Emil Brown, Ty Wigginton, Marcus Thames, Ryan Theriot, Andre Eithier, Aaron Hill, Ryan Church, Jose Lopez, Jamey Carroll, Stephen Drew, and Mark Grudzielanek all have in common?

They are part of the group of 141 major league baseball players who had a higher VORP in 2006 than Juan Pierre (and keep in mind that VORP takes into consideration at-bats).

You might think that this is a fluke. Perhaps Pierre had an unusually poor season. Let’s see.

First of all, he was playing for the Chicago Cubs, who play in a pretty good hitter’s park. He hit .292/.330/.388, stole 58 bases and was successful in 74% of his base-stealing attempts. His career line is .303/.350/.377, with a SB success rate of 73.6%. It would appear that Juan Pierre, in 2006, had a very Juan Pierre-like season.

Thus, the Los Angeles Dodgers have decided that the approximately 142^nd-best player in major league baseball is worth $45 million to them over 5 years. Pierre is going to be 30 years old in August. Accordingly, not only is he unlikely to improve, he’s also likely to begin his decline during the contract. His 2004 line of .327/.374/.407 is looking more and more like a career year. Furthermore, he will be going from Wrigley to Dodger Stadium, which will not help his batting average. Without a solid batting average, Pierre is an even worse player, considering he doesn’t walk much and has zero power. Pierre is generally considered an average defender in center, nothing special, but nothing wrong with him either. Will this still be the case three or four years into his contract?

After losing JD Drew, the Dodgers have, in essence, “replaced” his contributions to the team with Juan Pierre, a FAR inferior player, for a similar cost (and more years). For those wondering, Drew was 59^th in VORP in 2006.

It remains to be seen whether the strong farm system that Ned Colletti inherited (thanks to Logan White) and solid core of players including Brad Penny, Derek Lowe (thanks to Paul DePodesta) will catapult the Dodgers into success, or whether Colletti’s valiant attempts at dragging them down into mediocrity will overcome their surplus of excellent young players.