Desperation is a poor quality for a decision-maker

Desperation can cause men to make some crazy decisions.

Witness the case of Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry.

For all intensive purposes, if the Cubs do not succeed in 2007, Hendry will likely be jobless. Thus, his thought process has less to do with the overall success of the franchise in the long-term, and more to do with making sure the team is competitive in 2007. This is no small task, considering his Cubs won a mere 66 games in the weakest division in baseball.

Alfonso Soriano, while certainly a good baseball player, is also an incredibly overrated player. I will give credit where it’s due: in 2006, playing in an extreme pitcher’s park, Soriano was incredible. He had a career high in homers (46), walks (67), OBP (.351) and SLG (.560). He stole 41 bases (although was caught 17 times), and played an acceptable left field (but don’t let the outfield assists fool you---everyone was testing him, so it makes sense for him to accumulate a lot of assists).

However, one season does not a player make. Soriano is 30 years old, in the middle of his prime, and unlikely to improve much more. He is, however, likely to decline with age. Furthermore, 2006 has all of the makings of a career year. His career OBP is a lowly .325. With Texas in 2004 and 2005, he was downright abysmal away from Arlington, posting a line of .224/.265/.374 in 2005. Lest you think this was a fluke, his 2004 road numbers are very similar: .244/.291/.444.

Thus, not considering the length of the contract, Soriano is unlikely to be that good even while he remains in his prime. Plus, when you consider the fact that he will be under contract, at $17 mil per season, for eight seasons…well, it makes you glad that you’re not a fan of the Lovable Losers.

On the plus side for the Cubs, it looks as if they intend on making Soriano a center fielder. Assuming he can do an adequate job, this will maximize his value, as it is a lot harder to find solid-hitting center fielders than it is to find solid-hitting corner outfielders. However, if the Cubs decide that Soriano is better suited to left, he will doubly hurt them, as he will likely take at-bats away from the underrated Matt Murton.

The Cubs will have a formidable lineup in 2007, and it’s not like they’re a poor team financially. They should at least contend, which is not saying much considering the weakness of the division. However, given the Cubs’ financial might, it seems that they could have improved themselves just as much (if not more) than by taking the huge financial risk of signing Alfonso Soriano.

Especially since he’s really not that good in the first place.