Examining the Tribe's hitters' BABIP: Team and individual

Last season, the Indians’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as a team was .327. The American League average for BABIP was .308; no other team was even higher than .319. In other words, the Indians were extremely lucky in BABIP last season. Nearly every single player who had a significant amount of plate appearances posted a BABIP better than league average---in fact, of players with at least 100 PAs, only Aaron Boone (.288), Eduardo Perez (.275), Todd Hollansworth (.265), and Andy Marte (.265) were below average. That means that Choo (.412), Shoppach (.387), Broussard (.371), Martinez (.345), Inglett (.344), Sizemore (.342), Gutierrez (.336), Luna (.333), Garko (.333), Peralta (.329), Hafner (.326), Blake (.325), Michaels (.320), and Belliard (.317) ALL had above-average BABIPs last season.

However, before we get too worried that many of the Tribe’s hitters were extraordinarily lucky last season, let’s take each’s BABIP in the context of the individual hitter. For hitters, BABIP does not hover around .300 in the same way it does for pitchers---generally, some hitters have higher or lower BABIPs. The key in judging “luck” for hitters is to look at other factors---ground-ball/fly-ball ratio, line drive percentage, and BABIP in other seasons---to try to find aberrations.

Because they have limited major league experience, we have little with which to judge Choo, Shoppach, Inglett, Gutierrrez, Luna, and Garko. Likely most of them were fairly lucky (especially Choo and Shoppach), but it’s possible some of their BABIPs were legitimate. Ben Broussard seems like a clear-cut case of being lucky---his previous season’s BABIPs were .320 and .287; his BABIP with Seattle after the trade was .279. I’m most interested in the players who will have a significant role with the Tribe next season, namely Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, Hafner, Blake, and Michaels.

Let’s start with Grady Sizemore. Before I get into the details, I would like to stipulate that I’m a huge Grady Sizemore fan. I think his excellent 2006 is just the tip of the iceberg, and Sizemore has a chance to be a very special player.

However, it would appear that Sizemore received an inordinate amount of luck in 2006.

In 2006, Grady Sizemore hit the ball in the air, a lot. In fact, 46.9% of his balls in play were fly balls, compared to 31.2% in 2005. This is excellent for hitting for power---ground balls cannot possibly become homers, and rarely become doubles or triples. However, while fly balls are more likely to be extra-base hits, they’re also more likely to be outs, generally. Sizemore also had a lower line-drive percentage in 2006 than he did in 2005; in 2006 19.8% of his balls in play were line drives, versus 24.3% in 2005. Line drives, as you might imagine, are more likely to become hits than regular fly balls---in fact, line drives become hits approximately 75% of the time. So Sizemore hit more balls in the air (which are more likely to become outs), but a lower percentage of line drives. And yet, Sizemore’s BABIP increased from .335 in 2005 to .342 in 2006. Yes he’s fast, but speed has little influence in whether fly balls or line drives fall for singles or are caught for outs.

Sizemore’s increased fly-ball percentage bodes well for his power---his homer total increased in 2006 despite Sizemore having fewer of his fly balls become homers than in 2005 (only 12% of his fly balls in 2006 became homers, versus 15.1% in 2005). However, coupled with his drop in line-drive percentage, it does not bode well for Sizemore’s batting average. More fly balls means more extra-base hits and more outs.

Of course, Sizemore still strikes out a lot---20.4% of his plate appearances in 2006 ended with a strikeout, in 2005 it was 18.7%. However, his minor league track record suggests that this is something he can improve on---as a 22-year-old in AAA he struck out in only 15.2% of his plate appearances, and as a 21-year-old in AA only 13% of his plate appearances ended in a strikeout. Thus, Sizemore can negate the likely regression in his batting average by simply putting the ball in play more often, and his track record suggests he is capable of making this adjustment.

Furthermore, Sizemore could once again improve his line-drive percentage. If Sizemore improves his line-drive percentage and maintains his fly-ball percentage, his batting average would likely stay around .290 while his power numbers continued to increase. If he can strike out less, too, there’s no telling how good he can be as soon as next year. However, in 2006, he was a little lucky.

Victor Martinez does not have the benefit of relying on his fleet feet. His BABIP rose for the second consecutive year, from .290 in 2004 to .327 in 2005 and .345 last year (incidentally, his batting average has followed suit, from .283 to .305 and .316). However, Martinez’s line-drive percentage has also risen each season, from 16.8% to 20.6% and finally 21.6%. His strikeout rate has remained stable, around 12%, and his walk rate has also remained stable, around 10%. Martinez has been remarkably consistent over the last three years, except each season he’s hitting the ball harder. It’s likely a .345 BABIP still has some luck, but it upon examining these other factors, it may very well be legitimate. (Incidentally, Martinez hit 34.4% of his balls in the air last season, up from 31.8% the year before. However, only 9.4% of his fly balls became homers, down from 14.4% and 12.6% the previous two seasons. It’s possible that Martinez’s power numbers will spike next year; if healthy, 25 homers is not out of the question).

Time will tell if Jhonny Peralta’s 2005 season was a career year. Remarkably, his 2005 and 2006 seasons do not look that different---his ground-ball rate remained fairly steady (45.5% in 2005, 47.6% in 2006). His line drive percentage was also consistent, 19.5% in 2005 and 18.8% in 2006. Peralta’s 2005 BABIP was an exceptionally high .349, but his 2006 BABIP was .329, also fairly high. So what changed?

Well, Peralta walked less, struck out more, and had over 10% less of his fly balls become homers. Peralta’s walk rate fell from 10.2% to 8.9% of his plate appearances, while his strikeout rate rose from 22.5% to 24.1% of his PA. In 2005, 19.6% of his fly balls became homers, whereas in 2006 only 9.4% of his fly balls became homers.

While this is tough to read, it appears to suggest that the “real” Jhonny Peralta lies in the middle. His ground-ball and line drive percentage didn’t change much; and while his walk rate fell and strikeout rate rose, neither changed by a hugely significant amount. In 2005 an inordinately high amount of his fly balls became homers; in 2006, an inordinately low amount became homers. It is likely that Peralta will improve a fair amount upon his production in 2006, but not nearly to the level of his production of 2005.

When you look at Travis Hafner’s numbers, you begin to realize how amazing he is. When you look deeper at Hafner’s numbers, you realize that he’s even better than you thought. Interestingly Hafner’s walk rates have increased from 2004 to 2006 (11.8% to 13.7% to 17.7%) while his strikeout rates have been relatively stable (19.3% to 21.3% to 19.6%). His line-drive percentages have gone up every year since 2004 as well, from 18.6% to 20.2% and then 21.2%. His home-run rate has gone up each season as well, from 4.9% of his plate appearances to 5.7% and then 7.4%. This has coincided with an increase in the percentage of fly balls that become homers, from 18.6% to 26.8% to 30.7% However, Hafner’s BABIP has gone down each season, from .356 to .349 and then .326. In 2004 43.5% of his balls in play were fly balls; that number fell to 36.5% in 2005 and went back up to 40.2% in 2006.

That’s a lot of numbers. What it suggests is this: Hafner is striking out the same amount, walking more, and hitting the ball harder. However, his BABIP has gone down, dropping 23 points from 2005 to 2006. It is likely that not as many of his fly balls will become homers next season (he led the entire AL in this category, by a whopping 4.1% over the second place man, David Ortiz). However, it is also likely that more of Hafner’s balls in play will become hits, suggesting that a rise in his consistent batting average (.311, .305, and .308 the last three years) could be in store, which when coupled with his consistently improving walk rate should boost his already-amazing OBP even more. As a side note, Hafner played in only 129 games last year and yet hit 42 homers; if his homer rate does go down somewhat but his health allows him to play 150 games, it’s quite likely that he’ll still surpass his 2006 homer total.

Casey Blake was essentially the same player in 2006 that he was in 2004. His walk rate was about the same (10.2% and 9.9%), his strikeout rate was nearly identical (20.8% and 20.4%), his home run rate was virtually unchanged (4.1% and 4.2%). In that pesky 2005 season, Blake struck out the same amount (19.9), but walked less (7.4%) and homered less (3.9%). His BABIP in 2005 was also significantly lower than in 2004 or 2006---in 2004 it was .312, then .268 in 2005, and .325 in 2006. Interestingly, in 2004 39.8% of his balls in play were fly balls; this spiked to 42.4% in 2005, and then fell back to 36.6% in 2006.

In the past three seasons, we’ve seen two Good Casey Blakes who were virtually identical, and one Bad Casey Blake who was less patient, less powerful, and less lucky. It’s looking like the 2005 version was more of an aberration; however, next year Blake will be 34 and could begin to decline. It’s reasonable to expect some slippage from Good Casey Blake, but probably not to the level of Bad Casey Blake.

Jason Michaels had never been an every-day player before 2006; thus, we must take a comparison of his 2006 season to the previous two seasons with a grain (or ten) of salt. That being said, Michaels’s ground-drive percentage has remained consistent since 2004 (40.0%, 40.7%, and 39.6%). His line-drive percentage has fluctuated but remained in the same range, from 20.5% in 2004 to 24.6% in 2005 and 22.7% in 2006. His BABIP was .345 in 2004 and .350 in 2005, but fell to .320 in 2006. What changed?

Well, Michaels did. Or perhaps he was exposed because of playing every day. Either way, he walked significantly less than he had in previous years (12.1% in 2004, 12.8% in 2005, and 7.8% in 2006). His strikeout rate was smack in between his previous two seasons’ (23.1% in 2004, 13.1% in 2005, and 18.4% in 2006).

Despite maintaining a similar ground-ball and line-drive percentage, Michaels walked significantly less and had a much lower BABIP. Much of this can be attributed to the fact that he was exposed to many more right-handed pitchers than he had been in the past; perhaps accounting for the fall in the walk rate. However, it would appear that the decrease in BABIP has more to do with bad luck than it does playing every-day, considering his line-drive percentage remained stable. Hopefully facing more lefties will cause him to find his old patient ways; this, combined with some regression on balls in play would make Michaels’s OBP above-average and make up for his lack of power.

On a team-wide level, the Indians’ BABIP of .327 is extremely high---as I said earlier, it is much higher than any other major league team. Thus, it is quite likely that a lot of this has to do with luck---lots of balls that the Indians were putting in play were simply evading fielders. However, we should remember that the Indians have some excellent hitters who hit the ball hard when they put it in play, thus increasing the chance that the ball will become a hit. Their team line-drive percentage was .207, second in baseball behind Minnesota (.214) and just ahead of the White Sox (.201), Boston and Texas (.200 each). In other words, a high team BABIP is to be expected, but the Indians’ BABIP was still higher than normal, even given their line-drive percentages.

The Indians are very likely to experience some regression in their BABIP as a team. Hopefully, this will be made up for by increased power, especially from Sizemore, Peralta, Martinez, Marte, and left-field platoon of Michaels and Dellucci. The Indians will not have problems scoring runs, but they will probably not experience the same amount of luck on balls in play that they experienced in 2006.

I will be out of town for a couple of weeks, and will not post again until 2007. Happy Holidays everyone!