Thursday, December 07, 2006

A lesson taken to Hart

In the early 1990s, Indians General Manager John Hart acquired many young, talented players, such as Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Sandy Alomar, Carlos Baerga, and more. He then signed them to long-term contracts, guaranteeing the player a good payday in return for a long-term commitment.

Mark Shapiro worked under John Hart, and has taken this lesson to heart (pun intended). Last season, the Indians were, for all intensive purposes, an 89-win team, according to their expected win total. The only players they lost were Aaron Boone, Ronnie Belliard, Bob Wickman, Eduardo Perez, and Ben Broussard---and they received decent returns on Belliard, Wickman, Broussard and Perez in trades.

Thus, the Tribe is left with a very young team that essentially was worth 89 wins last season. The scary thing is, this bunch of Indians is locked up for a LONG time. Here is a list of their roster. Accompanying each player is their (age) in parenthesis, and then the last year they're under contract for. For example:

Grady Sizemore (24) 2012

Means that Grady Sizemore is currently 24 and cannot become a free agent until after the 2012 season. Here's the rest of the team (in alphabetical order, mostly):

Josh Barfield (23) 2011
Rafael Betancourt (31) 2009
*Casey Blake (33) 2007
**Paul Byrd (36) 2007
Fernando Cabrera (25) 2011
Fausto Carmona (23) 2011
Shin-Soo Choo (24) 2012
Jason Davis (26) 2010
David Dellucci (33) 2009
Ryan Garko (25) 2012
Franklin Gutierrez (23) 2012
Travis Hafner (29) 2008
Joe Inglett (28) 2012
Cliff Lee (28) 2010
Hector Luna (26) 2010
Andy Marte (23) 2012
Victor Martinez (27) 2010
Jason Michaels (30) 2007
Jhonny Peralta (24) 2011
CC Sabathia (26) 2009
Kelly Shoppach (26) 2011
Jeremy Sowers (23) 2012
Jake Westbrook (29) 2007
**Joe Borowski/**Aaron Fultz/**Roberto Hernandez are all signed only for 2007

*Arbitration-eligibe after 2007 season
**Club option for 2008

The key thing to note is that while the Indians might have seven free agents after the 2007 season, arguably only one is of any importance (Jake Westbrook), while every single other one is fairly easily replaced. Furthermore, many of these players have club options which would keep them under control for 2008 as well, if exercised. Additionally, none except Westbrook are going to be expensive to retain, should the club want to keep the player. Finally, these seven free agents will clear approximately $24 million off of the books, meaning the team will have $24 million to spend without increasing payroll by one cent.

After 2008, Travis Hafner will be a free agent. However, no one else of the current roster will be a FA. Thus, the Indians should have the financial flexibility to make a very significant offer to keep Hafner.

Notice how many of the Indians' key players---their best players, who are likely to get even better---are signed through 2010 or beyond. Not to mention additional youngsters who are likely to make an impact in 2007 and 2008 (and all of whom will have six years before they're eligible for free agency) such as Adam Miller, Trevor Crowe, Tony Sipp, Chuck Lofgren, and Brian Barton.

The Indians could theoretically go into a shell for three years and maintain a competitive team throughout that span. Of course, they won't, and will likely improve the team during that span. Furthermore, because they haven't handed out any ridiculous contracts this offseason, they are more likely to be able to keep Travis Hafner, one of the few players who would be worth the astronomical amounts of money it would take to keep him around.

Not only are the Indians good, they're also young and they're all going to be around for a long time.

This is just another piece of evidence showing why Mark Shapiro is one of the very best general managers in the game.



Thanks to Rotoworld for their excellent up-to-date salary and contract information.

1 Comments:

At 3:52 PM, Blogger pojo said...

This is one of the better blog pieces that I've seen written on the Tribe in the past couple of months. I've been thinking this, but never this comprehensively.

Nicely done...

 

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