David Dellucci and the joy of splits

The Indians are about to sign outfielder David Dellucci to a contract, reported to be worth $11.5 million over three years. The deal is likely to be announced at the winter meetings once Dellucci passes a physical.

Dellucci, 32, is a left-handed hitting left fielder with a career line of .263/.348/.449, for a career OPS of 797. Dellucci has posted OPSs of 880 and 899 over the last two seasons with Texas and Philadelphia, hitting 42 homers in 699 at-bats (granted, in very homer-friendly parks) and posting OBPs of .367 and .369.

So what’s the catch? Why isn’t a hitter of Dellucci’s caliber getting a longer contract worth more money? Well, for one thing, Dellucci tends to hit a for a low batting average (.263 career), even though his OBP and SLG are stellar. More importantly, Dellucci has extreme platoon splits; in other words, he’s a MUCH better hitter against right-handed pitching than he is against lefties.

In 2006, when Dellucci had an OPS of 899, all but 20 of hit at-bats were against righties (incidentally, his OBP was .375 against righties, and .292 against lefties). In 2005, Dellucci had only 33 at-bats against lefties, and had a poor 706 OPS. From 2004-2006, Dellucci has 949 at-bats against righties, compared with 81 against lefties. His OPS is 875 against righties, but only 605 against lefties.

If only the Indians had another left fielder capable of hitting left-handed pitchers. He wouldn’t even have to be able to hit righties, Dellucci can take care of that. If only…

Jason Michaels’s 2006 season with the Indians looks pretty bad. Michaels posted a measly 717 OPS---bad for any hitter, but downright awful for a left fielder. However, this is misleading: Michaels was terrible against right-handed pitchers, managing only a .252/.312/.354 line, for an OPS of 666. However, against lefties Michaels hit .291/.341/.450, for an OPS of 799. The reason his overall OPS is only 717 is that Michaels had 305 at-bats against righties, while only 189 against lefties.

Furthermore, over the last three seasons, Michaels has an 829 OPS against lefties, including a .385 OBP (in 403 at-bats) and a 720 OPS against righties.

If used correctly, the combination of Jason Michaels (against lefties) and David Dellucci (against righties) in left-field is going to be a very productive hitter.

This got me thinking about platoon splits. The Indians have no set right fielder going into 2007 either. However, the candidates are fascinating, because of their platoon splits.

Shin-Soo Choo was solid in his debut with the Tribe. He seems to be a much better hitter against right-handed pitchers than against lefties. In the majors, his OPS was 836 against righties, as compared to 628 against lefties (granted, in only 18 at-bats). His minor league splits back this up further: in AAA Choo absolutely destroyed righties to the tune of .361/.433/.578 (that’s an OPS of 1.011, kids), while he struggled against lefties, batting only .192/.256/.218 (for an OPS of 474). Now that’s an extreme platoon split. If only there was another right-fielder Choo could platoon with…

Franklin Gutierrez’s 2006 season with Buffalo was encouraging, but not incredibly impressive. Gutierrez hit .278./.373/.433 with the Bisons, which is solid for a 23-year-old. He then stunk it up with the Indians in limited action. However, his platoon splits reveal something interesting: Gutierrez was much better against lefties than he was against righties. With Buffalo, Gutierrez hit .320/.413/.583 against righties (996 OPS) and only .269/.362/.378 against lefties (740 OPS).

Let’s review. Left-field candidates’ 3-year OPS splits:

Jason Michaels: 829 vs lefties, 720 vs righties

David Dellucci: 605 vs lefties, 875 vs righties

Right-field candidates’ 2006 AAA OPS splits (I cannot find more detailed minor league splits, unfortunately):

Shin-Soo Choo: 474 vs lefties, 1011 vs righties

Franklin Gutierrez: 996 vs lefties, 740 vs righties

A couple of caveats: 1) these numbers are taken from a fairly small sample size, especially Choo’s and Gutierrez’s, 2) past performance does not guarantee future success. Certainly helps, though.

It is likely that Casey Blake will get the majority of at-bats in right field. While this wouldn’t be a terrible thing, the Indians are better of letting Blake serve as a super-utility-man, playing right field, first base, and third base as needed, while letting Choo and Gutierrez split most of the at-bats in right field. Both Choo and Gutierrez are better outfielders than Blake, and their extreme success against either lefties or righties suggests that they could form a potent platoon.

The key now is for Eric Wedge to maximize his roster. I’m sure he’s well aware of these splits; he needs to manipulate game situations to benefit the Indians. If he is able to do this, and the four aforementioned players continue to have reasonable success as they have in the past, the Indians could have two very productive platoons to add to their already explosive lineup.