Prediction update

Before the season started, I made predictions for the record of every team in baseball, accompanied by some remarks. It's July 4, so it's a good time to take a look at how I'm doing so far.

AL EAST:

New York Yankees: currently 39-41 (expected 45-35). WHAT I SAID: 94-68, "I can see a lot going wrong for this team, but it’s so hard to bet against them." Must go 55-27 to meet my record. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: Sure enough, a lot has gone wrong. However, they're going to make things very interesting over the next three months.

Boston Red Sox: currently 51-31 (expected 50-32). WHAT I SAID: 91-71, "this team is loaded at the top, and with only a little bit of luck could win the division." Must go 40-41. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They had more upside than any team in baseball, and much of it has come through. However, they have not been lucky and have had several players underperform, quite a feat considering their current record.

Toronto Blue Jays: currently 40-43 (expected 42-41). WHAT I SAID: 83-79, "This record is not so much an illustration of my dislike of the Blue Jays, but rather it reflects the strength of the American League: someone has to lose some games." Must go 43-36. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They have rebounded from a slow start and have weathered some devastating injuries. They're a mediocre, unexciting team.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: currently 33-49 (expected 32-50). WHAT I SAID: 75-87, "the Rays have a respectable staff at the moment (albeit one lacking in upside) that should keep them in enough games to let the offense come through." Must go 42-38. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They looked so good for so long before hitting a wall. They have disappointed me, but I still believe they are very close to being respectable.

Baltimore Orioles: currently 36-46 (expected 40-42). WHAT I SAID: 73-89, "offense won’t be terrible, but Tejada is on the decline and the rest of the over-the-hill veterans won’t make up for it." Must go 37-43. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They are simply a bad team with no future.


AL CENTRAL:

Cleveland Indians: currently 51-32 (expected 47-36). WHAT I SAID: 91-71, "The Tribe will survive on an excellent offense and underrated pitching staff. The starters are not amazing, but Sabathia is excellent, Westbrook very underrated, and there is definite potential amongst the Lee, Sowers, Miller, and Carmona group. However, I worry very much about Jeremy Sowers." Must go 40-39. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: Please direct a few props this way. The Indians are playing a little over their head and have a tough schedule in August and September. However, their starting rotation is intact and healthy for the first time all season, and Carmona is for real.

Detroit Tigers: currently 47-34 (expected 48-33). WHAT I SAID: 86-76, "A respectable season will be called a disappointment for a team which saw many of its offensive players perform near the top of their capabilities last season." Must go 39-42. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: Tigers' offense, and Justin Verlander, are much, much better than I expected.

Minnesota Twins: currently 42-40 (expected 43-39). WHAT I SAID: 83-79, "The Twins’ bullpen is outstanding, and Johan is incredible. But they are shooting themselves in the foot, giving many (or any) starts to Ponson, Silva, and Ortiz." Must go 41-39. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They weathered the storm of terrible veteran starters and now have their best pieces in place. However, a run similar to last season is unlikely.

Chicago White Sox: currently 36-44 (expected 34-46). WHAT I SAID: 78-84, "they can expect less from nearly every single offensive player on their roster, save perhaps Brian Anderson (although letting Erstad play is probably just as bad)." Must go 42-40. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: Can I get some more props here? Their offense has been weaker than even I expected, but I did see a huge regression coming. They have played better recently, and I think they are as likely as any team in baseball to exactly match my prediction.

Kansas City Royals: currently 36-48 (expected 38-46). WHAT I SAID: 66-96, "They will score some runs (even more when Billy Butler gets promoted) and appear to be at least kind of on the right track to respectability; however, they will still give up a lot of runs and should be on the wrong end of their share of embarrassments." Must go 30-48. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They're better than I gave them credit for, despite Alex Gordon. However, it does seem like they could hit a wall come September.


AL WEST:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: currently 51-32 (expected 48-35). WHAT I SAID: 86-76, "Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman are strong contributors to a mediocre-at-best offense that relies heavily on Vladimir Guerrero. Their pitching staff will be what carries them in to October, with the underrated John Lackey leading the way." Must go 37-44. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: I don't think they're this good, but strong performances from unexpected sources, like Reggie Willits, have propelled them to a great record. Expect some regression.

Oakland Athletics: currently 43-40 (expected 46-37). WHAT I SAID: 83-79, "Perpetually solid Dan Haren is as low-risk as any starter in baseball, and Joe Blanton is solid if unspectacular. However, the back end of the rotation – while not terrible – is not good enough to support what is going to be a very bad offense." Must go 40-39. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: Their offense is a lot better than I expected, but even with fantastic performances from Haren and Blanton, their pitching isn't quite as good. They've been a bit unlucky win-wise so far, but have been a bit lucky with Haren and Cust as well.

Texas Rangers: currently 35-48 (expected 38-45). WHAT I SAID: 81-81, "You pretty much know what you’re going to get with this team, and that’s a .500 club." Must go 46-33. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. This team really is more of a .500 club, and should play better in the second half.

Seattle Mariners: currently 45-35 (expected 40-40). WHAT I SAID: 76-86, "The offense is okay, but not nearly good enough in the American League to be a threat, and the starting pitching will eat innings but get knocked around. That’s not a good combination." Must go 31-46. WHAT I'M SAYING NOW: They're better than I gave them credit for. But they're not nearly this good.


National League update will come soon.

Indians faltering through easy schedule

In my last post I commented that the Indians had a very easy stretch in their schedule, starting June 5, for 54 games. The Tribe had lots of home games, and lots of games against bad teams.

We are currently 28 games into that 54-game stretch, and the Indians are not taking advantage. They are currently on a 6-game win streak; however, that has taken them to only 17-11 during this stretch. That is not good enough.

Don't get me wrong, I am glad that they are three games up in the Central, and 1/2 game behind Boston for the best record in baseball. However, after the next 26 games, the Indians' schedule gets brutally difficult: many games on the road, and many games against good teams. That means that the Indians can play the same "level" of baseball and see worse results, since their opponents are better.

Therefore, the Indians need a comfortable lead on August 3, when their schedule gets tough. And in order for that to happen, the Indians really need to take advantage of their next 26 games.