Sizemore is not a leadoff hitter

I know people are beginning to get on Sizemore about his batting average, so I wanted to take a look at it.

Batting average is highly correlated with line-drive percentage. The more line drives you hit, the higher your BA will be. Of course, if you do not put the ball in play (aka strikeout) you cannot get a hit.

Last year Sizemore struck out in 20% of his plate appearances, a high number. Of balls put into play, 34.2% became hits. However, based upon his line-drive percentage, we would have expected only about 31.8% of balls put into play to become hits. In essence, what that means is that Sizemore was "lucky" to receive 11 more hits than he "should have". Had he not been lucky like this, his batting average would have been .273.

This year, Sizemore has struck out in a scary 28% of his plate appearances. That means his battting average should fall---but not from last year's "actual" average of .290, but rather from last year's "expected" average of .273.

In addition, Sizemore's line-drive percentage has gone down. His actual batting average on balls in play this year has been .297, while his expected is .288. In other words, despite his low batting average this year, Sizemore has not been unlucky.

So what does this mean?

1) We should keep in mind that a player with Sizemore's speed should beat his "expected" batting average by a little because he can leg out a few infield singles that a player like Victor Martinez would not get

2) Simply put, the more strikeouts you have, the lower your batting average will be. Last year Sizemore struck out a lot, this year he's striking out too much.

3) Sizemore's declining line-drive percentage isn't a big problem...except when it's coupled with his rising strikeout totals. Something might be off in Sizemore's game.

However, Sizemore has not been caught stealing this year (in 12 attempts) and has walked a ridiculous amount of times. My guess is that he is actively trying to hit for more power---at the expense of some line drives. He is seeing far more pitches per at-bat than he did last year, but his percentage of strikeouts that were called versus those that were swinging is the same as it was last year.

Also interestingly, Sizemore is swinging at less pitches than ever before, and making contact with even fewer. So compared to the rest of his (short) career, Sizemore is A) Not swinging as often, and B) Not making contact as often when he does swing.

SOME CONCLUSIONS:

1) SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!!!!! I know it feels like the season has been going on for awhile, but in reality often times even a full season's worth of statistics can be misleading (like Peralta in 2005...or Peralta again in 2006). So a month and a half's stats can be even more misleading.

2) Sizemore is seeing lots more pitches. This leads to many more walks---but also more strikeouts, as he's getting deeper into counts.

3) Sizemore is actively trying to hit for more power. This would explain his lowered line-drive percentage and his lowered contact rates. However, his slugging percentage is really low, too.

4) Something might be wrong with him, physically.

I really think it's mainly #1, perhaps with a bit of #2 and #3. I don't think anything is wrong with him physically. And I do think that he will not bat .290 again---I've said that since the off-season. However, I find it unlikely that he will continue to hit .239 as well.

There are people---many people---who think of Sizemore as a lead-off hitter. He's not. Just because he's batting there doesn't mean he fits the mold. This is a power hitter with speed. He's not a guy who will hit .300 every season, he's much more of a .260-280 hitter. However, the speed is real (he's gotten caught stealing less and less each year), and the power is real as well. Now, if he can show that the walk-rate is legitimate, his being a .269-.280 hitter won't matter at all. This guy is not Kenny Lofton, he's not Johnny Damon. He's much more like Andruw Jones, without the same calibre of defense. That might not sound as good, but Andruw Jones has 348 homers by age 30 and is probably going to go to the Hall of Fame.

People need to stop thinking of Grady as a leadoff hitter, and they need to start thinking of him as a power hitter with speed. And truthfully, that is more valuable.